| Before 1993, the aggregate demand was adjusted by dominating credit scale and cash put in. from 1996, the money supply was established for the adjusted object of money policy. At the same time, nominal interest rate always is controlled by central bank. Because the equilibrium is requested among interest rate, money demand and money supply, the money supply and interest rate is double controlled, the gross disequilibrium in the money market is inevitably. The problem is that the disequilibrium in the money market not only predicate the nominal interest being on the high side or on the low side, more affect the investment and save, but also indirect affect price level and economics boom short-term movement and long-term movement trend. We consider with a view to the precondition of money supply and interest rate double controlled, and research the equilibrium and disequilibrium trend, from this we can correct understand some economics gross relation in money market, so that it can help exact understand our country macro-economics problem, and can help exact carry out money and finance policy operation.In the first chapter, we mainly analyze the money market basis status. This chapter includes the money market mainly variable basis status, the money policy operation and the disequilibrium theory.The variables of money supply and interest rate are main instrument for performing money policy. At present in our country, although money supply has some endogenous factor, however it has quite exogenous factor. At the same time, the interest rate is controlled by the government. The variables of money supply and interest rate is both controlled by government. So, the disequilibrium trend between money supply and money demand is inevitable. In our country, information systems isn't consummate, market mechanism is also imperfectness, at the same time, the interest rate which is the price signal of money market is the half fluctuate which is controlled by government. This presumes the price signal isn't determined only by the market, the price system is controlled, and so is inevitable lagged. For this reason, the disequilibrium of the demand and the supply is normality. So this paper analysis the nominal interest rate for this nearby years in our country basis on the disequilibrium hypothesis. We set up the model of the money supply and money demand, and we try to analysis whether the decision-making of the nominal interest rate and the money policy accord with the action mechanism between the money supply and money demand. For the more, we try to forecast the nominal interest trend and educe the embody policy advice.In the second chapter, we mainly analyze the dynamic of the money market index. The money multiplier, the money circulate rate, the price level and the gross domestic production can reflect the basis state of our country money market supply and demand. First we analysis these indexes, we have discovered by analyzing these indexes' movement trend that the money multiplier is continuance augmentation, the money circulate rate gradually shrink, the price level is approximately steadiness. However we analyze these facts and conclude that the money market in our country is disequilibrium for the money demand excess the money supply.In the third, we estimate the function use of error correction model and disequilibrium theory. Basis on the state of the money market in our country, and basis on the theory of money demand and money supply, we set the model as follows: We estimate the function use of error correction model, at the same time we estimate the price adjust function of the money market, we judge the market aggregation state by this method, and judge the disequilibrium state of money supply and money demand, from that conclude the disequilibrium test result. From the estimate result, we find out the long-term and stabilization relation among the money demand, real income, nominal interest rate and inflation rate. The money demand is stabilization with other interpretative...
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