Empirical Analysis On Migration And Economic Development Of China Based On CD/CES Production Function

Migration, as a result of the rural industrialization and the population urbanization, is the key project in the economic study field. In this paper, the migration reasons of China and its influence on the economic development are analyzed. Then suggestions are bring forward to solve the problems existing in the migration of China.Firstly, the theoretical background of the migration in China is analyzed. Since 1978, 1) China's development strategy switches from capital intensive strategy to labor intensive strategy; 2) China's township enterprises are developed dramatically. Not only does more job opportunities are created in the same investment, but also large numbers of immigrants can be absorbed. This indicates that China's migration aroused by the changes of social structure rather than the personal motivations.Secondly, a CMP model is developed using the CES production function, and the model has some properties such as: 1. Migration is a negative function of urban labor force, including unemployment; 2.Migration is a negative function of expected rural incomes; 3.Migration is a negative function of migration-related cost; 4.Migation is an increasing function of urban production; 5.Migration is an increasing function of the cost of capital; 6.Migration is likely to be a positive function of urban wages, but this is not guaranteed. The extent to which migration responds to urban wages depends on the value of the elasticity of labor-capital substitution.Thirdly, a multivariate linear regression model is put forward based on the academic analysis. Three factors: rural urban income gap , the rate of unemployment and the labors of urban are analyzed using the cross section data in this model. The results show: the overfull migration rather prick up the imbalance of rural urban economic and deteriorate employment problem than stimulate economic development.Fourthly, three departments of economic development is denoted by Cobb-Douglas production equation. The contribution to economic development of laborallocation is reckoned. The results show: the contribution of labor allocation occupy 32%~45% in the first period (1985-1992), and occupy 38%~44% in the second (1993-1998). And this further indicated that developing the rural enterprise is very important to transfer the rural surplus and accelerate the economic development of our country.Finally, some advice is put forward on the base of empirical analysis.1. Expand rural enterprise and promote the industrialization of rural areas;2. Reinforce the plan of urbanization.