Research On Stock Strategy Of Refined Oil Sell Company Base On Logistics Conception

The enterprise of oil sell sold the refined oil on the surface, and what is sold is" value of time" and" space value" in fact. The characteristic of the oil price fluctuates is frequency with great high range. It brings very heavy risk to the enterprise of oil sell be by the mutability of time value". To set up stock cost fluctuating on the trend prediction foundation on the basis of the oil price and control models for the stock of the variable of time, Sell the risk of reducing of enterprise to the refined oil, instruct the business activities to be significant.At introduction, recommend the meaning of the topic and the research of domestic and international in oil price fluctuate and stock control by chapter one.In chapter two, introduced some concepts and explain the mechanism of logistics of the refined oil. The conclusion is that to produce benefit, it is a key to heighten the level of logistics management. The focal point of logistics management of the refined oil is that the stock controls and management. It can make stock alleviate the contradictions by predict oil price fluctuate trend.In chapter three, to analyze the main factor of the foundation that the oil price predicts and influence oil price fluctuate. And has analyzed two kinds of main methods predicted. On the base of the oil price of every week in 2002-2003, carry on what oil price fluctuate linear to return to and predict and give and produce the relevant conclusion.In chapter four, try to class the influencing factor in detail. Then to predict oil prices fluctuate trend by use attribute theory, draw oil price drop and drop of oil prices fluctuate trend estimate by attribute. At last, considering the revising effect of non- basic influence, give out each kind of non- basic revision coefficient.In chapter five, set up the two kinds of trends" drop" and" go up or not fair" each probability sell the stocks of enterprise control models. Then to set up refined oil sell enterprise control models which the stocks of special periods.In chapter six, it conclude summarize and prospect. To summary the main work of this text and prospect the work of continuing carrying on in future.