The Industrial Structure Analysis And Economic Forecasting Of Henan Province

The present situation and adjustment of regional industrial structure are the focus issues concerned by many scholars and decision-makers of government. It is a task with theoretic and practical sense that how to achieve the upgrade of regional industrial structure by optimizing the industrial structure and combining with the advantages of resource and technology. This thesis can be divided into two parts. In first part, the relevant theories of industrial economics and input-output analysis are applied to discuss how to decide the industrial structure based on the qualitative and the quantify research. In second part, an artificial neural network model is established in order to forecast the GDP of Henan Province from year 2000 to 2010.Several pieces of conclusion are made through the research of this thesis:1. After lengthways analysis of industrial structure change of Henan province during 1987-1997,1 think there are four problems should be concerned:The stagnation of investment proportion of the first industrial has directly influenced the enhancement of equipment level of agricultural technology andtechnical content of agricultural products. (2)The total output proportion of the third industrial remain unchanged as while as the increasing of investment proportion . It show us that the work efficiency and economic benefits of the third industrial are low. There are some resource wastes in the third industrial. (3) The harmonizing level between the first and second industrials is better. The harmonizing level of the second industrial keeps descending after 1992 (4) From the perspective of the whole nation, we find the development level of first and third industrials is in arrears as while as the second industrial is better.2. After the landscape orientation analysis to the evolution process of Henan industrial structure, I think there is a gap between Henan and coast provinces in the aspect of industrial structure status and industrial structure benefits. It is very difficult to shorten this gap during a short time because the middle area where Henan located is the "blind point" of macro adjustment and controlling of nation.3. Through the analysis and research of Henan Input?Output Table, I confirm the candidate industrials which can be grow up to the key industrials of Henan in the future. The list includes agriculture, metal mine selection, food manufacture and process, chemical industry, mechanic industry, textile industry, the manufacture of electric power stream and hot water, transport equipment manufacture, electric and mechanic equipmentmanufacture, Electrommunication equipment manufacture, instrument manufacture, freight and post.4. There is a lower economic increasing phase of Henan from 2000 to 2010. The average increasing speed is 7.89% from 2000 to 2010. The average increasing speed will exceed 8% from 2002 to 2006.After that the speed will decline. There is little possible to exceed 10% during this period.The innovation point of this thesis include three points:1. I combine the forecasting of industrial structure with economic gross in the research of regional economy. It covers the character and quantity aspects of economic forecasting. There is a clearer understanding to the development of regional economic situation through this research.2. A decomposing model of increasing parts of gross output is established. In this model, the factors which bring the increasing of gross output are divided into four parts: the change of demand, the change of price, the change of structure and the technical progress. I make a demonstration analysis by making use of the data of input-output table of 1992 and that of 1997.3. An artificial neural network model is established to predict the economic growth of Henan Province.