Research Of The Effective Demands And The Domestic And Foreign Trade Of Guangxi

The paper takes the development of GuangXi economy as the aim and studies the two important factors affecting the development of economy (the domestic and foreign trade and the effective demands) systematically, putting the various economic theories and the methods of econometrics in use synthetically and combining the qualitative analyses and the quantitative analyses. The research includes several aspects to be as follows. Firstly, after obtaining a large number of data, through analyzing and arranging them, the author determines quantitatively the function of the domestic and foreign trade and the effective demands of GuangXi in the development of GuangXi economy. Then, through referring to many achievements of the domestic and foreign researches, the author finds that though there are many concerned researches in this realm, the synthetic degree and the practicability of most of them are not strong and this is one of the tasks of the paper. Secondly, through analyzing the data of the domestic and foreign trade of the recent years of GuangXi, the author finds out that there exist many problems in the domestic and foreign trade of GuangXi, such as the outdated export model, the wrong structure of export products, the net export that grows too slowly, and the net transfer to the regions of our country that holds great deficits and the amount of the deficits of which is still growing rapidly. Through analyzing the data, the paper studies why these problems exist. Thirdly, after analyzing the relation of the supply and demand data of the recent years of GuangXi, the paper masters the degree of shortage of effective demands of GuangXi. Moreover, the paper also studies the reasons of the demand shortage in the consumption, theinvestment and the domestic foreign trade. The growth of the consumption demands has been suppressed by the lower wealth, the uncertain future income and future cost, the backward fundamental facilities of the countries and the slowly growing income of the peasants; because the transformation investments grows too slowly, the propulsion of the political investments is weak, the growth of the spontaneous investments is feeble and the zeal for the foreign businessmen go to GuangXi to invest is not intense, the growth of the investment demands is slow; the great many of deficits worsen the situation of the domestic and foreign trade and cut down the demands to the products and services of GuangXi seriously. Fourthly, based on the principle of gradual transitivity of variables and the principle of minimizing exogenous variables, the author sets up a macroscopic simultaneous equation model named "TN MAC MODEL" . Then, with the model and referring to the aim of the policies, the author predicts the economic situation between 2002 and 2005. Fifthly, with the Harrod-Domar theory of economic growth and the result of the predict, the paper analyzes the situation of demands of GuangXi between 2002 and 2005. The conclusion is that the effective demands of GuangXi will be still insufficient in this period. Sixthly, the paper studies the way that the domestic and foreign trade affects the demands of GuangXi. Based on this, the paper also analyzes the influence of the domestic and foreign trade to the employment. Seventhly, combining the qualitative analyses and the quantitative analyses, in face of the prominent problems of the development of GuangXi economy, the paper puts forward a number of constructive advices to be as reference for the relative departments of the government to bring in policies.