Study On The Early-Warning System Of Risks In Local Government Obligation Of Chongqing

It is well known that establishing an Early-Warning system of risks in local government obligation is very useful to avoid explosion of government obligation crisis. Moreover,the condition of risks in local government obligation is very serious,so the research is important in present. During the initial stages of applying the Early-Warning to risks in government obligation,this paper supplies a new train of thinking by using quantitative and qualitative analysis.Basing on the defining government obligation,this paper summarizes the domestic and abroad theories about risks management of government obligation during different stages,points out the possibility of financial crisis caused by obligation risks and concludes the management theory of risks in local government obligation through analyzing government obligation on the finance. According to the management theory,generalized obligation is concluded,and it is suggested that risks in local government obligation are same with risks in local government finance,disclosing risks in local government obligation come from economy development. Deficit risk,narrow sense obligation risk,efficiency risk,management risks and intangible contingent risks are concluded with the condition of ChongQing. And the reasons resulted risks can be separated to the general and the special,which contain information asymmetry,economic factor and system factor. Economic factor involves in irrationality of industry structure in ChongQing,bad quality of economic,reforming enterprises system that lags and rigid finance expenditure. Investing and financing system problem,finance system reforming problem,tax revenue problem,finance revenue assign problem and budget system problem are consisted in the system factor. By the analysis of obligation crisis,this paper gets the standard to judge the risks in local government obligation and design indicator reacting to crisis definition. Indicators reacting to crisis phenomena are designed with the result of risk classification and reason analysis. With the help of indicators,empiristic analysis establishes the types of risks in government obligation of all counties and constitutes Discriminant Model and Logistic Model using six factors,which is derived by cluster analysis and factor analysis. Finally,this paper gives the alarming extents and some political advices aiming at preventing risks and supplying some methods and ideas for works.