Forecast And Simulate On The Sales Status Of Enterprise Product

Based on the present status of internal and external forecasting research discussed and some popular forecasting methods and principal summarized, the developing direction on this field is showed. Applied the ideology of Western Commodity School, all kinds of factors on enterprise marketing and managing environment are analyzed which influence the sales status of enterprise products notability. Based on the mathematical description of the sales status of enterprise product and some reasonable hypothesis, the main problem of forecasting the sales status of enterprise product is transformed into two sub-problems including forecasting sales volume and forecasting market share. On the consideration of the purpose of sales volume forecasting and the characteristics of sales volume time series, the model of fuzzy forecasting on sales volume is applied and based on the study of the correlation among similar kinds of products market share in the same market place, the State-Space model of forecasting market share is provided. In the model forecasting market share, the increment of marketing force is inducted then the simulation model of market share is created. On the consideration of new producfs difference, the forecasting methods of new products are analyzed deeply then the flow chart of new product forecasting is drawn. At last the development trend on Chinese Color TV seCs market is discussed then the market demand model is constructed which can show what and how many Color TV sets are needed in the future; These forecasting models in the paper are tested with the data on sales volume and market share of XIAHUA color TV in three years lately. The result shows the models are effective which are worth spreading.