Research Of Grey Theory Predictive Model On Incidence Of Virus Hepatitis

ObjectiveAim at the incidence of virus hepatitis and their factors ,the more reasonable predictive model will be investigated And established ,which will offer decision-making foundation to prevention and surveillance , at the same time which will offer scientific reference to establish prediction model of other respiratory infections.MethodsApplying grey forecast gm(1,1) model,time series analysis (including: ARIMA model, exponential smoothing method ) to analyze the incidence of virus hepatitis (including: Hepatitis A,Type B hepatitis) from 2000 to 2008 year, and to establish their predictive models . Finally, the established models will be estimated,evaluated ,then the best predictive model will be established.ResultThe incidence of Hepatitis A is seasonally fluctuant-distributing and has no conspicuous tendency variation from 2000 to 2008 year, the incidence rate retain at the level of 20.00/100,000 especially after 2000year,but the level is more higher than average level of the country. Otherwise, the incidence of Type B hepatitis is no seasonally fluctuant-distributing and has conspicuous tendency variation from 2000 to 2008 year.The fitting results of the GM(1,1) season exponential model ,ARIMA model and exponential smoothing method are very good. Comparing the exponential smoothing method ,ARIMA model with the GM(1,1) season exponential model ,the GM(1,1) season exponential model's results is better than the other model's, so the the GM(1,1) season exponential model may reasonably predict in future, especially in seasonally fluctuant-distributing time series.