Study On Early-warning System Of Financial Risk In Hospital Liability Manament

As Chinese reform and opening-up continue to deepen and health service system is undergoing overall innovation, competition in Chinese medical market will be increasingly intense. Hospital liability is a current phenomenon, and is referred to what is highly discussed in this thesis. It is well known liability will bring risks. It is worth noting that although hospital liability sometimes may help hospital to get enough money to realize faster development, its negative influence especially financial risk in hospital management should not be ignored. But the financial risk caused by hospital liability is complex and hidden and its scale is hard to be measured accurately. Therefore this thesis aims at estimating and predicting the scale of financial risk in Chinese hospitals, analyzing the channels, factors and constructing early-warning system of financial risk, and then putting forward policy advice.Firstly, this thesis gives a theory review of hospital liability and risk management, such as their definitions, classifications, estimation methods, and positive effects. After explicating the main objects and contents, the thesis concludes that there is still no practical and applicable scheme and criterion about forecasting financial risk in hospital.Secondly, in order to estimate the scale of financial risk in hospital as exactly as possible, this thesis makes some investigations and consultations by "Delphi method" that is commonly used in accordance with actual situations. These investigations and consultations mainly pick out key indexes and their proportions. Then the early-warning index system of financial risk in hospital liability is constructed, which includes 4 first-class indexes and 12 second-class indexes.Thirdly, based on theoretic analyses, this thesis set a Synthetic Warning Index (SWI) to measure the degree of the financial risk in hospital liability. In this study, "signal lamp method" in risk management is introduced to display the extent of the risk, which makes financial risk in hospital liability more clearly and visually.Fourthly, to obtain the trend of the financial risk in hospital, the thesis make a case study and select 12 indexes from a general hospital in Beijing (from July 2003 to December 2004) in this study. Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN)model is firstly applied in the prediction of the financial risk in hospital liability. With the help of the software Matlab6.5 and complex mathematics operation, the model achieves satisfying results.Finally, this thesis analyzes the inside reasons and outside factors causing the financial risk and raises corresponding suggestions according to the analyses above. On one hand, as administrative agent, the government should pay great attention to that although for most Chinese hospitals there hasn't been obvious loss due to financial risks. One the other, managers in hospitals should also attach great importance to forecast of the possible financial risk and familiarity with the risk control measurement and prevention strategy.