| As a consequence of global warming, the climate in Hubei province has changed apparently. Compared with other regions, one of the notabilities is that the temperature in summer is depressing obviously, with which chilling injury in summer; one of the main weather disasters of rice crop in Hubei province is concomitant.Applied the widely used index of chilling injury in summer about the rice, based on ArcGIS technique and Mann-Kendall test, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the target disaster are discussed thoroughly. After the overall analysis on the characteristics of this disaster and the general facts of the rice production in Hubei, the impact of the chilling injury in summer on the rice could be found. Like the sensitivity and the flexibility of the rice toward the disaster, and the risk analysis on the rice chilling injury in summer are come to the conclusion in this paper. And the main conclusions can be expressed as follows:1) In the background of the climate change, this disaster has an obviously increasing tendency and covers not only in E'Xi Area but also in JiangHan Plain nowadays. The intensity of chilly injury changs abruptly twice in the period of 1971 to 2006 and is getting stronger from the beginning of the 21st century.2) Commonly, the process of the chilling injury in summer can be divided into 4 stages, arising stage, developing stage, west-fading stage and the clearing-off stage. Usually it begins from the E'XI-NAN, and then spreads through the whole E'XI mountainous area, where the disaster is getting stronger and lasts longer. Striding over the line of 111.25°E,, the disaster is covering the entire eastern part, and fading fast westward. Finally, it clears away from the southwest part of Hubei province.3) The duration of this disaster is getting longer recently. And E'XI is lasting longer than the eastern part, while E'XI-BEI longer than E'XI-NAN. Lately, the main rice production area JIANG-HAN plain is suffered serious chilling injury disaster in summer, where the intension of the disaster is getting strong and the duration longer obviously than before.4) The intensity of chilly injury changes abruptly twice in the period of 1971 to 2006 and is getting stronger from the beginning of the 21st century. The first time begins in 1988-1993, when the intense changes from strength to weakness. Around the year of 2002, it increases up to 3 times than before, that is the second time of abrupt change.5) As a whole, the sensitivity distribution in space is extremely uneven. E'XI-BEI Area is the high sensitivity region while the E'XI-NAN is low. The uplands of eastern Hubei are one of the complicated sensitivity distribution parts. The regions including Wuxue, Yangxin, and Hong'an are the highest sensitivity area, while it is the second highest in the areas of Guangshui, Anlu, Suizhou and Jingshan. All these stations above are seldom suffered the chilling injury in summer in the 30 years, but the rice productions are usually reduced greatly if the disaster attacks them.6) In the middle part of Hubei, the adaptation about the rice towards the chilling injury in summer is higher than the east and the west uplands areas. Zhongxiang is the center of the highest adaptation region. What's more, the east is higher than the west part, and is reducing from the north to south. E'XI is the low adaptation region and it is reducing from the north to south, too. Zigui is the center of the lowest adaptation part.7) Considering over the characteristics of the disaster, the sensitivity and the adaptation of the rice towards the disaster, the risk analysis on the rice chilling injury in summer is educed. The result, that quite matches with the history facts, can play as a guidance role in the rice production. E'XI mountainous area, the west from 111.25°E, is one of the most dangerous parts of rice chilling injury in summer, where the north is more dangerous than the south. Changyang and Wufeng is another most dangerous region, where the disaster is frequent and intense, and the rice sensitivity is high while the adaptation is low. The risk in the east part from 111.25°E is lower. But it still calls for pay attention on the disaster in Zhongxiang, Suizhou, Yichen, Tongshan and Tongchen, and somepart of Jingzhou.In summary, these extreme weather events lead to a serious damage and a higher risk to the middle season rice production than before, therefore the monitoring, forecast and precaution should be enhanced. |
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