| Recent years, Global change and its impact have caused the extensive concern and attention; the regional effects of Global environmental change are becoming a hot field of geographical research. Global climate change will make the Human face unprecedented challenges; however, the agriculture which depends on Heaven for food is one of the most affected industries. This paper takes the Yanting County of Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin for example, the dynamic changes of agro-ecological climate suitability-degree are analyzed via by its 26 years (1980~2005) data, the influences of small-scale agro-climatic resources by Global climate changes are discussed, and many agriculture optimize the management of the production of resource use measures are put forward, These results will provide a scientific reference for the agro-climatic resources use of the study area.This paper has mainly analyzed the change of meteorological factors in Yanting county such as the solar radiation, temperature, precipitation data during last 46 years(1960~2005),evaporation data during last 26 years (1980~2005) and the dynamic membership function of temperature, sunshine and precipitation percentage for rice, maize, sweet potato and wheat during last 26 years (1980~2005) data by using fuzzy mathematical method. Then the agro-ecological climate suitability-degree of the four crops in Yanting County has assessed by its average resources suitability-index, average efficient suitability-index, and average utilization-index as the indexes during last 26 years as well as the characteristic has discussed due to its dynamics changes in 1980~2005. According these, come to propose a solution for agricultural production in response to the climate change.The results showed that in Yanting County during the growth period of four crops, the climate resource suitability (Isr) which is ranking as follows: sweet potato> rice> corn> wheat. With the level of light, water (Ise) and heat during their growth period, the sort as follows: sweet potato> maize> rice> wheat. Average use index in the highest index (K) is corn, the whole sort is as follows: corn> sweet potato> rice> wheat. Nearly 26 years of climate change on Yanting four affected crop production, the impact of temperature changes is comparatively small, the effects of sunlight and precipitation are large. A sunlight change is beneficial to the growth of all crops, but the precipitation change to the three crops is adversely affected, but to wheat is a beneficial effect. According to the climate resource suitability and the match of light, heat, water, the three of spring crops were increased oscillation. From the average of climate resources utilization efficiency, the rice and corn were a rise trend, sweet potato was a downward trend, on the late autumn crop (wheat) is concerned, whether it is appropriate from the climate resources suitability, or the match with light, heat and water, or the average utilization of climate resources, there has been a obviously increase.In order to adapt to the climate change, enhance agricultural production and optimize management, Yanting County should take the follow measures: develop Spring crop production and stable the growth of late autumn crops; make with a combination of water and soil conservation, enlarge the water-saving agriculture development; increasing resilience and stability of agricultural production; improve the agricultural ecological environment, develop eco-agriculture. |
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