Studies On Early-warning Techniques And Risk Assessment For The Poplar Stem Boring Pests In Heilongjiang Province

Poplar trees,which widely have been planted in Heilongjiang Province,are indispensable main tree species in development of fast-growing plantation.Poplar stem boring pests may cause the reduction of tree growth and decline of timber quality,and even may cause to death in a large area making a great loss.The main stem boring pests of paplar trees in Heilongjiang Province includes Cryptorrhynchus lapathi(Linnaeus),Xylotrechus rusticus(Linnaeus), Saperda populnea(Linnaeus) and Anoplophora glabripennis(Motschulsky).These four species are widely distributed in Heilongjiang Province and the damages are also most serious.The present paper dealt with early-warning techniques and risk assessment for the poplar stem boring pests in Heilongjiang Province based on the collection of weather data and pest occurrence information.The results are as follows.1.Five climate zones are divided in Heilongjiang Province according to similarity clustering analysis based on twenty-one meteorological factors.2.Climatic characteristic map of Heilongjiang Province was obtained according to Correlation Analysis and Principal Components Analysis of meteorological factors,and high risk areas of four pests were ascertain based on the combination of pest distribution maps and climate clustering analysis.High risk areas of Cryptorrhynchus lapathi(Linnaeus) includes Bayan,Mulan,Tonghe,Binxian,Acheng,Zhaodong,Longjiang,Hailin,Muling,Linkou,Boli, Tangyuan,Tieli,Beian and Qitaihe.High risk areas of Xylotrechus rusticus(Linnaeus) includes Lanxi,Hulan,Bayan,Mulan and Duerbote mongolian autonomous County.High risk areas of Saperda populnea(Linnaeus) includes Qinggang,Lanxi,Zhaodong,Hulan,Bayan,Acheng, Shuangcheng,Binxian,Mudanjiang and Jiamusi.High risk areas of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) includes Binxian,Acheng,Yanshou,Shangzhi,Wuchang,Hailin,Jiamusi, Qiqihaer and Daqing.3.Eight main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of four pests were confirmed and four prediction models were made for the pests using these eight factors.4.Risk Analysises were made for the four pests according to the literatures and sophisticated expert experience.The risk value of Saperda populnea(Linnaeus) is 1.94,the risk value of Anoplophora glabripennis(Motschulsky) is 1.92,the risk value of Xylotrechus rusticus(Linnaeus) is 1.83,and the risk value of Cryptorrhynchus lapathi(Linnaeus) is 1.78. All the four pests are belong to a moderate dangerous forest pest.