Risk Analysis Of Droughts And Floods Disasters For Agriculture In Anhui Province

In this paper, looking at droughts and floods disasters of winter wheat and summer maize in agriculture droughts and floods disasters, with the date of meteorology,agriculture and the situation of a disaster in a long time, by studying and recognizing the causes, the impact of the form, the extent of resulting of droughts and floods disasters making, analysis the factor and its information of making disaster and loss caused by disasters of different body bearing disasters. Based on the upper analysis, risk assessment model and evaluation index system of drought and flood hazard for different hazard-bearing bodies were constructed. Distribution maps of risk grades for drought and flood hazard were drawn up by Surfer Software. The regionality and zonality of drought and flood hazard risk for different hazard-bearing bodies were analyzed. The research also constructed the contribution coefficient for yield disaster damage resulted by drought and flood hazard on time scales of ten days. Then drought and flood hazard dynamic evaluation model were constructed, after fully considering the contribution coefficient of drought and flood hazard of each ten days to final yield disaster damage and drought and flood hazard grade index of each ten days. Based on the research, drought and flood hazard dynamic evaluation for wheat and maize were carried on preliminary discussion.1)Based on the principle of field water balance, the anomaly percent of the ratio of difference value between precipitation and water demand of major crops and water demand of major crops was adopted to construct drought and water logging index, which has been verified by actual drought and water logging situation in Anhui Province.2)Based on the whole growth period, this paper developed a risk identification and estimation method for crop droughts and floods risk, then build a risk assessment model, realized the assessment of droughts and floods risk of wheat-maize in Anhui Province, worked out the droughts and floods risk distribution of wheat-maize. Because all the information to be used could be accessed through meteorological profession on real time, the risk assessment model has the pertinence of actual production and the operability for the use of meteorological profession.3)According to the requirement of agro-meteorological services, constructed the contribution coefficient for yield disaster damage resulted by drought and flood hazard on time scales of ten days. Then drought and flood hazard dynamic evaluation model were constructed, after fully considering the contribution coefficient of drought and flood hazard of each ten days to final yield disaster damage and drought and flood hazard grade index of each ten days. Based on the research, drought and flood hazard dynamic evaluation for wheat and maize were carried on preliminary discussion.4)The drought risk index distribution of winter wheat in Anhui: the main high value area were north of Fuyang-Huainan-Bengbu-Tianchang line, the median value area were north of Liuan-Hefei-Chaohu, While the low value area were south of Huoshan-Shucheng-Chaohu-Maanshan. Generally speaking, the drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui formed zonary distribution from east to west, the risk were increasing form south to north.5)The water logging risk index distribution of winter wheat in Anhui: the main high value area were Anqing and south of Yangtze River, the median value area were Fuyang and east of Huaibei-Suzhou-Bengbu, while the low value area were Jianghuai area. Generally speaking, the drought risk of winter wheat in Anhui formed zonary distribution from east to west also, the risk were decreasing form south to north.6)Compared the drought and water logging risk distribution of winter wheat in Anhui Province,the drought and water logging risk had opposite trend from south to north. Drought happened much more frequently than water logging in Huaibei area. the drought and water logging happened mostly similar in Jianghuai area,while in Huainan area water logging happened much more frequently than Drought.7)The drought risk index distribution of summer maize in Anhui: the main high value area were west of Huaibei, east of Jianghuai, the median value area were Chizhou and Suzhou, while the low value area were Dabie Mountain area. Generally speaking, the drought risk of summer maize in Anhui had high value in north, low value in south.8)The water logging risk index distribution of summer maize in Anhui: the main high value area were Yanjiang area and Huainan area, the median value area were south of Jianghuai, Fuyang and most areas of Liuan, while the low value area were Huaibei area. Generally speaking, the water logging risk of summer maize in Anhui had low value in north, high value in south.9)Compared the drought and water logging risk distribution of summer maize in Anhui Province,the drought and water logging risk had opposite trend from south to north. Drought happened much more frequently than water logging in Huaibei area, while in Huainan area water logging happened much more frequently than Drought.