Study On The Responses Of The Distribution And NPP Of Larix Gemelinii Forest To Climate Change

Boreal forests are assumed to be a significant sink of Carbon,but climate change may change this situation. Larix gemelinii (Dahurian larch) forest mainly distributes in the Daxing'an Mountains, serves as an important research site for forest ecosystem studies, because it represents geographical vegetation zone in the cold-temperate coniferous forest in China,and also a major component of boreal forests (Taiga) in the world.Based on a series of climate-vegetation classification indices, including warmth index(WI), coldness index(CI), humidity index(HI), mean annual precipitation, minimum temperature of January and maximum temperature of July, Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Stepwise Generalized Linear Models (SGLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM) and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) were used to simulate the geographical distributions of Larix gemelinii. Cohen's Kappa statistic and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the performance of the models. At the same time, NPP and climate factors of L.gemelinii forest were collected, and the bio-climatic NPP model of L.gemelinii forest was developed to evaluate the impact of global climate change on NPP of L.gemelinii. The results showed that those models except GLM model could simulate the geographical distribution of Larix gmelinii very well, and GAM model performs best. Climate change will result in a reduction in the suitable area of Larix...