| It's well known that earth vegetation and global climatic change have effects on each other. They affect each other in change direction. Therefore, the vegetation change has become the main and direct object of the global climatic study. Because of the special geographical position and the frail ecological environment in Subei, the grassland vegetation is much sensitive to the climatic change. Thus, the research on grass dynamic change in a long time series makes extremely great sense.Based on Statistical data, the two land use maps in 1986 and 2000, precipitation and the temperature data during 1960-2005 of Mazhong shan, precipitation and the temperature data during 1974-2005 of Subei oasis, On this basis, grassland characteristics, feature of all grassland patch types, the response to climate change and predict of SuBei oasis are studied. In order to better understanding of grassland resource potential study area and the natural environment, especially under the background of global change of climate change, the influence and response of grassland productivity, through prediction of different regions, using different grassland ecological deteriorating measures, so as to promote the development of regional agriculture ecological environment and good circulation. The article mainly divides into the following several parts:(1) The statistical data analysis shows that, before 1995, SuBei oasis was degenerated, especially, the most serious in the 1980s.(2) Analysis based on 1995 and 2000 remote sensing data shows that, since 1995, Subei oasis grassland in the right direction, grassland area increased.(3) The feature of three grassland patch types of SuBei oasis extracted by remote sensing data shows that, the study area since 1995, high, medium and low grassland vegetation types are improved, among them, medium grassland vegetation types improved obviously.(4)The causes of Subei oasis grassland dynamic analysis shows that, before 1995, main factors of grassland degeneration are natural and human factors about degeneration and climate factors, natural disasters, soil erosion, water gradually atrophic and grassland excessive, firewood wood, etc. But, since 1995, main factors of grassland are the strategy of implementation of the western development and protect the ecological environment. (5) Through the climatic resources evaluation model, the evaluation of SuBei climate resource shows that, SuBei climatic resources abundant degree is bad, Plus the climate elements of cooperation is bad, natural causes of climate forage utilization coefficient is low in SuBei county.(6) Using Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial models, Climate-Production of the natural grassland in Subei Oasis shows that, precipitation is the most important factors to Climate-Production of the natural grassland(7) Regression equation prediction shows that, in the north of Subei Oasis, average temperature increase or decrease 1℃, Climate-Production of the natural grassland increase or decrease 0.001 t/hm~2·a, annual precipitation increase or decrease 1 mm, Climate-Production of the natural grassland increase or decrease 0.008 t/hm~2·a. but in the south of Subei Oasis, average temperature increase or decrease 1℃, Climate-Production of the natural grassland increase or decrease 0.006 t/hm~2·a, annual precipitation increase or decrease 1 mm, Climate-Production of the natural grassland increase or decrease 0.007 t/hm~2·a.(8) Fifthly, based on the research results, countermeasures have been put forward, which in order to promote respectful grassland vegetation dynamic change and their response in climatic change in Subei Oasis. |
