Analysis Of Feed Grain Consumption Of China And Forcasting The Demand For Feed Grain In Chinese Hog And Poultry Husbandry

In recent years, China's rising demand for feed grain has been increasingly recognized as an important issue and many believe that any future increase in total grain demand in China will be mainly caused by an increasing demand for feed grains. Consequently, there has been increased research into China's feed grain demand and supply. However, past studies have generated vastly discrepant projections for China's feed grain demand and supply. Some of the projections have been proven to have deviated significantly from the true picture. Summarizing projections from available studies, we try to examine the possible reasons that might have led to projection discrepancies from three issues. The first one is the data problem of discrepancies between animal production and consumption levels. The second one is the vastly different feed-meat conversion ratios. Last but not least, conceptual problem also made discrepancies and deviations in predictions inevitable. This paper focuses on the feed grain consumption of china's pig and poultry industry, especially cares about the demand projection result affected by conversion ratios and kinds of animal feeding practices.Using data collected by the National Office, the feed grain consumption of animal husbandry was firstly calculated by "the providing way", following which the impact of different factors on feed grain consumption were analyzed theoretically. Then, getting the ongoing ways and characteristics of animal production and keeping patterns, the livestock production and production structure were forecasted. In the most important part of this paper, data from different ways including experimental papers, national stating materials of animal raising costs and returns and et al, and the changes of feeding rates and its related issues were analyzed, by which the future conversion ratios of pig and poultry were projected. What's more, collecting the animal research diets, the grain used as feed was stated. Above all, the feed grain demand of Chinese hog and poultry husbandry was forecasted during the next five years. The results showed that:(1) Increase in total grain demand in China over last ten years was mainly caused by an increasing demand for industrial grain consumption and feed grains. The growth of feed grain consumption was mostly related with the improved income, population growth and urbanization, the improving conversion efficiencies were helpful to release the growing trend of demand for feed grains, whose contributions to the feed grain consumption were respectively 54.3%,25.19%, 21%,-0.5%.(2) The consumption of meat, egg and aquatic products of Chinese people has increased to a high level, the future growth of animal products market will mainly come from the growing demand for animal products of rural residents and milk consumption of all the people, and the structural change in meat consumption will go on. Because of the urbanization and population growth, the total media-term demand for meat and egg of our country will grow at a declining and small rapid, which need more supply of domestic animal products. As the result reflected by the time serial model we see, the production of meat and egg in our country will grow respectively from 7629.7Mt,2844Mt in 2008 to 8246.8Mt,3049Mt in 2015 by annual 1.47% and 1.0%. Meanwhile, the pork production proportion of meat will decline from 62.9% to 59.92%, and the poultry meat production ratio will increase from 20.68% to 22.65, of which the chicken meat production will accounted for 70.97%.(3) The conversion ratios of hog and poultry were mostly related with keeping animal species, nutritional level of diets and feeding management. Recent years, The conversion ratios of hog and poultry in our country have been improved to varying degrees, the feeding rates of growing-finishing pigs raised in non-traditional household backyard, laying hens, broilers and color- feathered chicken will be about 2.81-2.91,2.27-2.36,2.11,2.81.(4) With the output growth of hog and poultry products together with modernization of related animal raising, the feed grain demand of hog, meat-chicken, egg-chicken in our country will grow from 12689.30 Mt,4520.72Mt,1336.68Mt in 2010 to 12268.98Mt,4616.69Mt,1520.83Mt, which accounts for the most important demand for feed grain. However, because of the data reliability of china's official animal production statistics, the prediction result of feed grain in this paper may be overestimated, related more research will go on in the future.