The Epidemic Prediction And Manage System Of The Sclerotiniose On The Spring Rape

The results of the study showed: sclerotiniose disease on the spring rape distributed in north-west area of Heilongjiang province. The occurrence rate of the disease is 30-60% generally, in serious area it can reach more than 80% in 1996. In 2003, the disease rate was 33%.The apothecium of the pathogen appears in the middle ten days of June. There were three peaks of the apothecium number appeared in the last ten days of June, in the middle and the last ten days of July. If the rainfall is sufficient enough, the apothecium would keep high level. The result of stepwise regression analysis showed the RH and the precipitation in the three days before investigation and in the ten days before the investigation were the key factors affecting the apothecium number. The 8 factors stepwise regression equation and BP Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model of the disease were established.The result of stepwise regression analysis showed the amount of rainfall and the relative humidity in the three days before investigation and the number of apothecium in the investigation day were the key factors affecting the number of the spores in the air. The 10 factors stepwise regression equation and 21 factors BP Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model of the spores were established.The flowers were firstly infected in the last ten days of June. The peak of the rate of disease in flowers was in the first ten days of July when it just was the peak of florescence. The leaves were firstly infected in the first ten days of July, the rate of leaves disease reached it's peak in the middle ten days of July and then reduced gradually. The stems were firstly infected in the first ten days of July, the disease was caused by the sclerotium on the earth surface, the rate of the disease was low and increased slowly. The rate of the disease on the stems increased quickly in the last ten days of July until reaping time.6 factors that affected the stem disease were selected by multifactor stepwise regression analysis and were used in establishment of the stepwise regression equation. Research results showed that the florescence meteorological factors was the key factors affecting the stems disease and were used in the establishment of the stepwise regression equation and BP-ANN model. The models can predict the stems disease in 2003 very well.The integrated control system of the sclerotiniose of spring rape was established. The main methods including the following factors: Reasonable rotation, ridge culture and cultivation to reduce the number of the sclerotia, planting on the higher fields, reasonable close planting and using of fertilizer to prevent lodge; controlling weeds and planting latterly to improve the condition; Carrying through the chemical control at suitable period. The 50% Ronilan (WP) was the best germicide for chemical control, the rate of control could reach 89%, the best dose of the Ronilan was 1.5kg/hm, the best time to control was the peak of florescence and the end of florescence.The Integrated Pest Management (IPM) counseling system was established by collecting and collating a lot of documents, the system included 5 modules: the introduction of the disease, the pathogenic fungi and it's pathogenic mechanism, the hosts and it's resistance, the epidemic and the prediction of the disease, the control of the disease.