Epidemic Dynamic Forecasting Of Tomato Gray Mould Caused By Botrytis Cinerea In Green House

Tomato gray mould, caused by Botrytis cinerea Pers., is a major epidemic disease of tomato in green house, causing considerable reduction in yield and quality. After 80s of 20th century, with the development of green house scale, the condition of temperature and humidity benefits to disease epidemic in green house, tomato gray mould expanding which becomes the disturbance of tomato production. Understanding the epidemic law of the disease, forecasting development tendency is the base of effectively control disease, so, we systemic analyzed epidemic law of tomato gray mould in green house. The results were summarized as follows:1. The relationship between incidence and severity of tomato gray mould in green house.We systemic investigated incidence and severity of tomato in the field, analyzed their relationship, result showed that relationship between incidence and severity described by Logistic model, the I-S relationship model is DI=1/[1+37.073EXP (-0.0571) ], use this model can estimate severity.2. Forecasting of epidemic tendency and apparent infection rate of tomato gray mould in green house.The types of growing models were applied to simulate 6 groups of data obtained by systemic survey of tomato gray mould in green house. The result showed that Logistic model was the best one for simulating the disease progress curve. By using primary disease incidence and several climate factor, predicting model for apparent infection rate were developed as follow:r= 1.208-0.00 lH2- 0.027Logit (I0) -0.167T+0.006T2 N=63, R=0.7883. Forecasting for the epidemic dynamic of tomato gray mould in green house.According to the systematic investigation and analysis of tomato gray mould in green house, we established simulation model of forecasting tomato gray mould in green house, the model were as follow:4. The relationship between diseased leave rate and diseased fruit rateAnalyzed relationship between diseased leave rate and diseased fruit rate in first and second layer, the result showed that when diseased leave rate was more than 10 percent the diseased fruit occurred, and diseased fruit rate increased with increased diseased leave rate.The relationship between diseased leave rate and diseased fruit rate of first and second layerwas described by Gompertz model.5. The relationship between colony number and incidence of tomato gray mould in greenhouseAnalyzed relationship between colony number and incidence of tomato gray mould in green house, we indicated that colony number in plate no related to incidence of tomato gray mould in green house.