System Dynamics Research On Water Resource Carrying Capacity Of Liaoning Alongshore Economy Belt

Nowadays, world is being faced with three important problems, which are population, resource and environment. It already becomes one of the hotspot to research how to harmonize the relation ship of the three aspects and assurance of resource sustainable development. Water is a primary substance, because it is related to humanity exist and socioeconomic development, and it is a kind of limited and nonreplicable preciousness resource, and it is important basic to realize socioeconomic sustainable development. Over the past century, we exploited and utilized water resource for laying stress on advancing economy, and successfully developed economy and advance standard of living, however, it left round robin challenge to new century because of water resource shortage and unreasonable utilization.Yet, Liaoning alongshore economy belt competitively utilized water resource in the course of industrialization and urbanized, formed the structure of municipal water and industrial water occupy agricultural water, agricultural water occupy ecological environment water, reduced available water resource. Water resources shortage increasingly severity, ecological environment rapid exacerbation. In order to hold developmental chance of the Northeast aged industrial base revival and got through the aorta of Liaoning "Five Points One Line" alongshore economy belt water resource. The paper started from the angle of water resources carrying capacity, discussed the develop and change trend of complicated model decomposition of coastland water resources, forecasted water resources supply and demand condition in future fifteen years, supply decision gist for water, resource allocation of Liaoning. alongshore economy belt.The paper started from research development of water resources carrying capacity both in home and in abroad, discussed the difference of water resources system between in coastland and in a general places, Liaoning coastland in the year of 2000～2005, built up system dynamics emulation model which included muti-plan of Liaoning alongshore economy belt, the model got the optimal developmental project—the eighth plan through simulating muti-plan. The eighth plan took three mostly measures for core, include open source, restricted flow and treatment sewage, together with adjusting other indices such as economy and society, made observably advance to Liaoning water resources carrying capacity relative to other plan. Lastly, according to simulated result, the paper put forward measure to improve water resource carrying capacity of Liaoning alongshore economy belt.