Improved Model From The Regression N Dam Safety Monitoring And Prediction

With the rapid development of economy in China, to develop water resources and solve problems in the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects will be more and more, especially the dam will increase. Dam safety monitoring is the key to the dam safety management. It is an important means to reduce project risks and accidents, to reveal the actual work of the dam. The analysis of dam monitoring data is the scientific basis to determine the safety of the dam. To make the analysis of observation data on the dam timely, reasonably and effectively is one of the important works of dam safety monitoring.In the field of dam safety monitoring, deformation monitoring program design and data processing is essential to choose. This article was Fengjie Meixi River dam dam deformation monitoring program design. Based on the previous, Select a time series model from the regression model to predict the deformation trend. Solving least square principle in the use of autoregressive model parameters, we found a strong geodetic model of the characteristics of nonlinear regression model allows the regression results are not satisfactory, so choose a genetic algorithm (GA) from the regression model parameters used solving.As easy to fall into local optimum genetic algorithms, the ant colony algorithm will optimization it in this paper, and this paper will establishe based on genetic algorithms and ant colony optimization algorithm combining GAAA. The programming platform in the C language. This paper will be based on principle of least squares to solve the MAR model, the GA model based on genetic algorithms, genetic algorithms and ant colony algorithm based on the combination of GAAA model used in the prototype and prediction on dam monitoring data analysis for the vertical deformation of the dam analyzing and forecasting, and make a detailed comparison, GAAA model was found both in convergence speed, stability, or in the prediction accuracy, all have a distinct advantage. Proved GAAA model model can be applied to dam safety monitoring, deformation analysis for the dam to provide a new forecasting model.