Reasearch On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Subway Shield Construction

Affected by economic crisis in 2008, our government has increased the investment in urban infrastructures such as highways, bridges, metros. Metro is developing rapidly. Domestically, metro construction accidents occurred frequently under the expansion of demand and the growing investment. The situation is not optimistic, metro construction risk has drawn increasing attention.This article researched the risk of metro construction based on the theoretical system of risk. First, we reviewed the metro risk research process by reading materials, and explored the problems in risk research, then put forward the contents of this paper.Second, we introduced the basic theoretical knowledge of risk. We studied risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation, risk response, risk monitor according to the process of risk management.Third, we studied the risk of shield construction. We refined shield construction common risk factors through statistical history of accidents. Risk evaluation index system basis has been constructed according to classification of the results of risk identification by risk sources.Forth, introduced the concept of fuzzy math, and combined it with the AHP, built an applicable method to evaluate and estimate the shield construction risk - Risk Comprehensive Evaluation Model. First we evaluated the single factor risk according to the fuzzy evaluation, then the criterion level risks through the role of the weight, and then the target risk levels. It formed the multi-level comprehensive risk evaluation system.Finally, we identified the 3rd Line of Nanjing Metro shield construction risks based on the shield construction risk identification in front, primarily by adjusted the common risk factors. Then evaluated the 3rd Line of Nanjing Metro Shield Construction Risk by Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, verified the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.