The Research Of Traffic Conflict Technique's Application To Waterway Safety Evaluation In Pearl River Estuary

Along with the development of domestic economy and international trade, the marine traffic situation in many harbours and waters has become more and more complex,with a mixture of the increment of ship numbers, tonnage and speed. Consequently ship density in some main channels and seaways is increasing and marine accidents take place frequently. evaluate traffic safety effectively have an important mean to propose countermeasures and consummate regulatory measures. To determine the safety status of waters, a lot of researches on ship's collision risk index (CRI) and measures of traffic safety evaluation had been carried out.To evaluate traffic safety by way of accident statistics is a common method either in the field of road traffic or in the water transport field, the number of accident has been taken as an important indicator.But this method has faults of small sample, long period, the large area and low reliability.Traffic conflict technique (TCT) can overcome these faults.Through summarizing, concluding and analyzing the former research achievements, TCT was introduced to waterway safety evaluation fields. At present, no experts carried out researches on this field, TCT's application on the field of water safety was preliminarily studied, offer a new method and new idea to engineers.The exploration on water traffic conflict technique as follows:1) Introduce the emergence and development of traffic conflict technique as well as the applications in road traffic safety evaluation.2) Put forward the conception of water traffic conflict,analyze its process occurs and defined its application scope.3) Analyze the feasibility of water traffic conflict data collection, put forward three data collection methods and attempt to standardize the implementation process of data collection.4) Attempt to define the severity of water traffic conflicts base on ship's collision risk index.5) Choose the cross waters in Pearl River Estuary as evaluation objects, discuss the application of water traffic conflict technique briefly...