Componentized Model Of Flood Froecast And Its Integration Application

There are many rivers in our country, at the same time, flood disaster is frequently. Flood forecast is one of the important methods for flood control and disaster reduction, to establish flood forecast model (FFM) and simulate flood is the best method for flood forecast at present.Combining with informatization greatly accelerate the development of flood forecast. In view of application problem that traditional flood forecast occurred, this paper put forward componentized model of flood forecast and its integration application. This paper's main contents are as follows:(1) Componentized model of flood forecast is implemented.â‘ According to flood forecast model's characteristics of structure and logic, we divide models into many independent parts, each part similar to a "black-box model" and has inlet and outlet.â‘¡On the basis of java, using component packing technology of Web Service and Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) to pack the each part of FFM.â‘¢According to the structure of FFM, using modelization construction method to putting up the component to a model.(2) Component library of FFM is built up. According to the characteristics of FFM component, all the components are divided into 9 parts:evapotranspiration, runoff yield, water source partition, watershed concentration, concentration of channel, watershed runoff and confluence, recession flow, precision evaluation and parameter calibration.(3) Evaluation index system of multi-model flood forecast is built up. According to the result of multi-model flood forecasting, this paper put forward the evaluation index system, including 5 factors:deterministic coefficient of parameter, qualified rate of flood forecast, similarity of rainfall, similarity of preceding affected precipitation, similarity of rainfall duration. The sums of the 5 factors are the index, reflecting the strength and weakness of results.(4) The method of making multi-model flood forecast scheme is put forward. In view of the particularity of multi-model flood forecast, this paper regard maximum and minimum of multi-flood forecast as range of flood forecast, then regard the range as flood forecast scheme, so that provide reference for leadership.