The Probabilistic Analysis Of Dynamic Stability Concerning The Uncertainty Of Load Model

The probabilistic analysis of transient stability of power system is of great improvement for deterministic analyzing method; however, it may not comprehensively indicate the characteristic of the load. In order to enhance the accuracy of the analysis, this paper proposes applying the nonparametric density kernel estimation to acquire the random character of load level, bringing the results into the analysis of transient stability as initial data to be sampled, while taking the changing ratio of composite of the different types of load models into account, to analyze the probabilistic transient stability of IEEE39 system, and the results indicate that the changing ratio has effects on the probability of the system. If the analysis considers all factors above, the results will be more realistic. This paper secondarily develops PSS/E for probabilistic analysis, and the results have been testified by statistic inspection and the non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation.