The Calculation Of Available Transfer Capability Based On The Probabilistic Models

As an index for describing the available capability of network, Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is an important reference for market participators to make decisions, as well as a judgment for system operators to alleviate transmission congestion. ATC is impacted by a large numbers of uncertainty factors of the system, so how to handle them reasonably and accurately is the difficult point in ATC calculating. This paper focuses on the uncertainty factors of the system, after finishing the calculation of TTC it uses Probabilistic Margin and reliability index to calculate TRM and CBM respectively based on the probabilistic models which are established by cumulant and Gram-Charlier expansion theory. TTC, TRM and CBM is calculated in a case study of IEEE RTS-96, the results show that more integrative and comprehensive informations of ATC evaluating will be given to the operating planners and the computational efficiency of ATC can be promoted greatly when used the method in this paper.