Operating Risk Analysis Of The Storage Subsystem In The East Route Project Of South-North Water Diversion

The East Route is one of the three lines of the South-North Water Diversion Projects. With the construction of the East Route Project, risk analysis and decision during the operation has become a key point of the Project management. Supported by the State's "Eleventh Five-Year" Science-Tech Tackle Key Project "Operating Risk Analysis and Management in the South-North Water Diversion Projects", this thesis chose the East Route Project as study object, defined, identified and evaluated the engineering risk of the East Route Project during operation. The main contents were as follows:First, research on the engineering risk analysis theories and methodologies. The mathematical relation between design safety coefficient and operation risk rate of hydraulic engineering was analyzed. Then the calculation methods for risk rate were classified into single and comprehensive methods and reviewed.Second, engineering risk identification. The Project were divided into three subsystems as water lift, water delivery and water storage subsystems according to the functions in the course of water transfer. The risk factors of each subsystem in structure, construction, operation and management were identified and the stmcture systems about risk factors of each subsystem were established.Third, engineering risk evaluation. The evaluation benchmark of the water storage subsystem was established and verified by a case study. The evaluation models were settled down by means of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy consistency theorem (FCT) methodologies. And the operating risk grades were ranked.Last, based on the conclusions of engineering risk evaluation and conditions of project operation, the strategies and measures from structure measures and non-structure measures were put forward to decrease the operating risk. The scenario analysis of secondary lake dykes of Dong-Ping Lake was performed by combining with traditional safety evaluation method. Then the response measures of project risk were put forward.