Research Of Markov Chain Prediction Method & Its Application On Bridge Engineering

With the rapid development of traffic, the forcasting of bridges's healthy states play an increasingly important part role in it.According to resarching different kinds of method that making the forcasting, Markov Chain is used in this paper for management bridge facility systems, to model their states and condition.The flexible structure of Markov Chain is its main advantage in describing their evolution. On the other hand, estimation of the transition probabilities in Markov Chain requires special attention.First this paper reviews state of the art in estimating transition probability in relevant areas. Then a new approcach: Genetic Algorithm to solving the transition probabilities is aslo proposed and applied to bridge data of Huhehaote Department of Railway Transportation.Results show, Markov chain can predict more realistically the future probability distributions of bridge element condition.