Study On Rail Passenger Flow Forecast Model Based On The Chain Of Travel's Purpose

The rail traffic's passenger flow is the base and precondition for the necessity analysis, scale choice, professional design. It's the gist and reference for the building phases for urban rail transit.Now, many cities adopt four steps model for passenger flow forecast. As the typical aggregated model, four steps model fit area plan and tends toward understanding. However, it doesn't consider many points, such as the residential travel behavior, the effect of different travel's purpose to attraction and impedance, and so on. It is significative to Research the method for the passenger flow forecast.This thesis summarized the actuality of the method for the passenger flow forecast, focusing on the land using theory and the four steps model. The author thinks that the control of the macroscopical quantity is very important. In the course of the forecast, we should notice the macroscopical parameter.Through the analysis of the four steps model and the disaggregated model for passenger flow forecast, the thesis puts forward a new model, named the model of rail passenger flow forecast based on the chain of travel's purpose. This model solves the problems in the four steps model and accord with the fact.In order to increasing the practicability of the model, the thesis designs the ORDIS counting software by Visual C#. ORDIS named from two words: Origination and Distribution. ORDIS counting software is used to count the distribution result at the first section of the model of rail passenger flow forecast based on the chain of travel's purpose.At last, the thesis gives a case to explain the count of the first section of the Model of The Rail Passenger Flow Forecast Based on The Chain of The Travel's purpose.