| People attach more and more importance to the reliability of urban distribution system with the economic development. This paper uses Bayesian networks into the reliability evaluation of distribution system, a D-S evidence inference method is contacted with Bayesian networks for Reliability Evaluation is presented, it satisfactorily resolves the influence of informative inadequacy and uncertainty,and makes a more rational evaluation result. This paper presents a forecast method of reliability based on historical data, it is able to avoid modeling difficulties and complicated calculation in the evaluation, and it is significance to the planning of distribution system and the management of reliability. Finally, a gray incidence method is used to analyze the correlative factors of reliability, then it presents technology and management measures to improve the reliability of urban distribution system.
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