Study On The Mechanism And Grey Forecasting Analysis Of Land Subsidence In Luoyang

Land subsidence is a general adverse geological phenomenon in China even in the world,which has the great impact on sustainable development of social economy. Luoyang is one of cities which the phenomenons of land subsidence have been found earlier.Some works on the cause of land subsidence,monitoring survey,hazards and control have been carried out.However,early studies are short of systematicness and continuity.Based on the existing data,the study on the mechanism and development trends of land subsidence has positive significance for future monitoring survey and control in Luoyang.Through collecting,managing and analyzing the history data of the land subsidence in Luoyang and combining the development and research status at home and abroad,the mechanism of land subsidence in Luoyang,3D visibility and grey prediction method are studied in this paper.The main content is described as follows:1.The influence factor of excessive extract groundwater on land subsidence is explored.Meanwhile,the paper researches the effects of urban construction,secondary consolidation subsidence in Quaternary sediment and self-weight of newly cumulose soil on land subsidence.2.DEM and vectorgraph are rendered by land subsidence,the analysis of the computational method about regionally mean land subsidence and the visibility of land subsidence is supplementary.Finally,the calculation formula about the average regional land subsidence is derived.3.Land subsidence observation has the character of unequal time interval,so the dates meet the equal time interval relationship by use of Lagrange difference value method. 4.Using the data of land subsidence in Luoyang,the models of GM(1,1) and grey-linear regression combined are established respectively.By contrast,grey-linear regression combined model,which has the better precision,is suitable to fit the value of indeterminacy land subsidence.