In recent years, cascading failure became important cause leading to large-scale blackout of power grids. During the early development of cascading failure, the power system cascading overload trip is for which some adjacent elements of transmission network on the edge of operation limit overload because of large range power transfer lead by some low probability accidents. It is of significance for prevention of large-scale blackout to effectively forecast the following-up failure that could occur. This paper defines a method to forecast cascading overload trip using the risk assessment indicator of line overload trip in key transmission section based on division of the key transmission section. This method is to seek an effective method for prevention of large-scale blackout. The validity of proposed method is verified by large calculation result.
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