Research And Application Of Real-time Water Level Control After Interbasin Water Transfer

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Project is not only huge investment,but also complex system.,which make the decision higher demand.Whether or not the decision is reasonable related to the inter-basin project's operation and safety as well as the probability of realizing the value,water transfer decisions should be carefully studied in both planning and running period.So far,researchers paied much attention to water transfer decision in planning period but little to running period,because of non-repeatability of Hydrological phenomena and the runoff process studied in planning will not recur in running period,no matter how complex the method used in planning period can't be used in running period directly.So,It is important to strengthen real-time decision-making research of Water Transfer Project,which is also the focus of this articleDifferent from the decision-making in the planning stage,Making real-time water transfer decision should not only consider the information at the moment,but also the necessary forecast information.This paper,based on the Dahuofang reservoir of Liaoning Province East-West water transfer Engineering,use forecast informations of 2-10 days rainfall from the year 2001 to 2007,these informations are released by Global Forecasting System from national environment forecast of United State.study the error probability distribution of the rainfall,and use the Monte Carlo method to get the probability distribution that one scale of rainfall forecasted but another scale happened.These informations could be reference for policy-makers to make decision,Next combined with water,rainfall and other information at the moment,With real-time control on Dahuofang water level to prior use the local flood resources,reduce lossed water and transferred water,optimize the allocation of water resources from water systems operation,The details are given in follow.Firstly,analysis the inter-basin water transfer decision-making research,point out the main problems,highlight the necessity and feasibility of the study.Secondly,introduce the theory of Monte Carlo simulation and hydrology variable sampling,statistice forecasted rainfall informations of 2-10 days rainfall from the year 2001 to 2007.using the software of Crystal Ball simulation to carry out Monte Carlo method,get the regular pattern of probability distribution,statistice The scale errors of rainfall in flood season and after one flood using curve-fitting model,analysis the availability of forecasted rainfall informations.Thirdly,with analysis on availability of GFS forecast rainfull information,take the flood water level of Dahuofang Reservoir for example to study of real-time control,aimed at the characteristics of inter-basin water transfer project,Respectively Point out pre-discharge,normal control and pre-storage methods based on the GFS forecast information in order to real-time control water level as the different current water level and water information, ultimately transfer less water and quit less waterFourthly,Taking the Dahuofang whole floods in 2005 as an example,based on real-time water,rain,work conditions,as well as water demand,information and constraints of water amount and ability,especially rain or runoff forecast information in the foreseeable period, Based on pre-discharge and pre-storage method,give the real-time dynamic control Program.Finally,to sum up the full text,and research objectives and outlook issues in the next phase.