The Optimization Of An Imported Crude Oil Maritime Transportation Network For China Based On Demand Distribution

With the lasting and appropriate development of national economy,the demands of crude oil in China have shown a significant rising trend.Since 1996 China has been a net imported country for crude oil.Meantime,because the production amounts of crude oil have not been in accordance with the extremely large demands,the crude oil has to be imported greatly in order to minimize the gap between demand and supply.At present,ninety percent of the imported crude oil is transported by sea.It means the crude oil transported by sea plays a crucial role of satisfying the crude oil demands in the whole country. To guarantee the future crude oil consuming and national strategic reserving,it is meaningful and worthwhile to establish a reliable imported crude oil network.At the same time,it is also reasonable to build the network on the basis of oil products demands,which aims to making the amounts of imported crude oil appropriate and ensuring the relative policies carry out.This paper puts emphasis on the marine transportation network issue of imported crude oil for china.It is regarded as a complex system.Thereby loads of nodes at four level and varieties of links according to different transportation modes are included. Unlike the previous literatures on the general transport network,this paper focuses on the fitting of probability distribution of oil products demands on the basis of the historical data.And then based on the probability distribution the paper establishes an imported crude oil model,which optimize the whole network.Firstly,this study reviews on the literatures of transportation network for imported crude oil and describe the nature,classification and solution of the problem.And then the current structure of crude oil transportation is generally analyzed.The nodes at four level such as crude oil supply nodes,crude oil transshipment ports,refineries and oil products consumer nodes are respectively introduced.In order to systematically and exactly master the oil products demands in various consumer markets and then establish a basis for the later probability distribution,the GM-BP combined network method is employed to forecast the demands.Under the guideline of it,this paper establishes an imported crude oil maritime transportation network model. As for establishing the model,this study employs the system optimization. Afterwards a problem regarded as a multi-objective function is established.It does not only consider the objective of minimum total cost,also deals with some political factor. For instance,quantify the national crude oil reserve risk factor.And then in the constraints of the model,a parameter is set to be stochastic which means the problem will also be a stochastic problem.Furthermore,the solutions to the stochastic problem and multi-objective problem are separately introduced at the beginning.Combinating with the two methods,this paper propose a solution to the designated imported crude oil network model.Through calculating the probability distribution function of oil products demand and setting up confidence level of a relative parameter,the uncertain planning is successfully adjusted to be a certain problem.And then a solution to the multi-objective planning under certain conditions is proposed.Afterwards,inputting lots of processed data,the results belonging to different confidence level are obtained.After that the various results are analyzed in the end.