| Power load forecasting is based on correct theoretical guidance and investigation and research on a large amount of detailed and accurate information, the use of reliable ways and means of load on the power system and make a reasonable and science inference for the development trend. Medium and long term load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and construction. Exact degree of load forecasting will directly affect the rationality of investment, network layout and running. Accurate load forecast, can arrangement for the internal power grid generator start-up and shutdown economically and reasonably, and maintain the security and stability of grid operations, reduce unnecessary rotating reserve capacity, arrange unit overhaul plan to ensure normal production and social life reasonably, effectively reduce electricity costs, improve economic and social benefits. Generally referring to the medium and long term load forecasting is more than ten years, the medium-term load forecast is about five years, both of them are annual unit. They help determine the new generating units installation and power system planning, compatibility and alterations, which is one of the important work for electricity planning department.This paper firstly gives a summary for present method of load forecasting. Then a deep research into fuzzy variable combination forecasting is carried through. Aimed at the problems of the low precision of the load forecasting and high energy industries accounted for the issue of absolute superiority in Shizuishan region, this paper puts forward a method of the industry-classified load forecasting which can more accurately reflect changes in various industries load. Finally with the help of the MATLAB toolbox we can make modeling and simulation about Shizuishan Power Grid data. The calculation example shows that this method can greatly improve forecasting precision. It is more scientific and has practice application value in projects. |
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