Analysis On Water-supply Risk And Reliability Of Daduhe River Hydro-junction

The aim of this research is to evaluate the risk and reliability of daduhe river hydro-junction according to the blue print of the south-to-north water transfer project. The main work and result are listed as follows:(1) To achieve this goal, the origin of uncertainty is analyzed and how it affects the outcome of water-supply system is described from the aspect of data input, model structure and parameter. Stochastic process, probability mathematical, and reliability mathematical theory are applied as analyzing tools to combine the method of runoff simulation and risk analysis.(2) The composition and simulation of the runoff has been introduced. How the runoff uncertainty affects the water-supply has been fully analyzed by the research of the simulation method. Year runoff and month runoff of daduhe river's three branch has been successfully simulated, and the length is 30000 years.(3) To analyze the risk and reliability of daduhe river hydro-junction, there are three aspects: reliability, recovery and period. And stochastic process, economic development, project and environment should be considered.The result of the research indicates water requirement in the transfer project is reasonable. After multi-year regulation, water-supply reliability of the reservoir is above 93.8%. If using the small water requirement, water-supply reliability of the reservoir is above 97.4%.