A Research On The Sample Size Of OD Survey And The Optimization Of OD Matrix Sample

The OD matrix descripe the traffic trip distribution is the most important foundmatal material in transportation planning and management. The "Four Stage" of traffic demand forecast model, the basic data is OD trip matrix. Therefore, the OD survey data accuracy to a certain extent, determines the transport needs of the accuracy of the prediction model, thereby affecting the transport planning and traffic management decision-making and policy results. OD survey data accuracy and reliability, to a large extent depends on the OD survey sample size and sample OD data reliability. This paper studies the OD survey sample size and sample OD matrix optimization problem.The thesis uses probability theory to analyze the procision and cridibility of OD survey in different days, Systematically analyze the problems of the OD survey sample size and the availability of the OD data in different OD survey days, Through analysis the problem of the OD survey sample size in detail,this thesis introduces the equal OD matrix concept, and makes use of equal OD matrix is equal to predict the traffic flows which can reach the same result by real traffic OD matrix in traffic forecasts. The method is the effective solution to promote the accuracy in forecasting when the OD capacity is 1, on the basis of Traffic demand forecasts in the traditional theories ,the optimization method is on the base of the main road to traffic flows, if traffic data were collected in the section of the road network, the survey data include all of travel information, thereby were used to improve the accuracy .This chapter, with the mathematical expression of the distribution of traffic, with the use of multi-objective decision-making operational research planning theory, we propose the model of sampling OD matrix optimization ,which eliminates the consquences of"four stage"method searching for the ture OD matrix painstakingly.Ensure the vecacity of forecasting. through building a computer simulation model, using the traffic forcasting Theory at this stage, and achieve the theory part of the demonstration by computer programFinally, the theory of the paper in Shandong De-Qi freeway traffic forecasts have been in good use.