Study Of Dynamic Traffic Information Prediction In Intellectual Transportion Guidance System

With the development of social economy,the relevant problems of traffic such as traffic jam,traffic accident,environmental pollution and energy shortage,etc, have already become one of primary problems of the city throughout the world, especially the big cities,and it have already become the main bottleneck which has restricted sustainable development of the city. Intellectual traffic system can play to the potentiality of the infrastructure of existing traffic to the maximum extent, relieve traffic jam, protect the environment, improve the security, reduce energy consumption, raise the efficiency, so it was considered to be one of the most important measures to solve of the traffic problem in this century.ITS involves a lot of technical fields, but its key technology is providing the real-time and dynamic traffic status informations to the vehicle, journey and the traffic managements. In this paper, on the basis of discussion of the domestic and overseas studies of dynamic network models and algorithms, according to the characteristics of complexity, dynamics and randomness of the traffic system, transform the network of primitive road into a new, virtual space-time traffic network , and merge existing dynamic traffic network theories on this basis and set up the traffic state analyze model witch with mutual mechanism of the dynamic capacity of the network of real-time dynamic flow and space-time, and in detail analyze the road section restraint (dynamic traffic capability)in the model, and propose the corresponding algorithm according to the model characteristic,that is the distributional parallel algorithm based on space and time virtual network. Construct an experiment traffic network finally, and carry on real-time prediction and analysis to its network flow,test model and feasibility, practicability, rationality of the model and algorithm.The conclusion indicates, the dynamic traffic prediction that this text puts forward predicts technology can imitate, follow, debate and predict the real-time and future traffic flow state. Provide theories and methods to the ITS that integrating the function such as dynamic traffic guidance, dynamic traffic system management and control and dynamic traffic jam easing.