Research On Passenger Flow Forecast And Optimal Method Of Organization In Comprehensive Transportation Hub

Scientific passenger flow forecasts and the optimum organigations is the foundation of realizing effective transportation system and the operational management in station. There are many traffic modals and large-scale passenger collector-distributor volume in a comprehensive transportation hub, also its transferred space is very complicated. Studying on transferred passenger flow and optimum organigations in a comprehensive transportation hub has pratical significance to enhance operational efficiency and quality of service.The thesis studies the method of passenger flow forecasting and structure optimizing of large comprehensive transportation hub in the ground of Beijing south station, which is according as the research work of The Ministry of Railways' item: railway transportation hub programming and capability deploying research-- large comprehensive transportation hub management project research.On the basic of analyzing current situation at home and abroad, specific to practical situation of domestic large-scale comprehensive transportation hub, this paper mainly research on forecasting of transferred passenger flow between various kinds of traffic mode and traffic assignment volume on each road in the transferred flow net, as well as the method of passenger flow line optimization. And the union example analyzed passenger flow forecasts and passenger flow optimal organization. In respect of transferred passenger flow forecasts: on the basic of analyzing influence factor of transferred passenger, through quoting traffic assignment theory and method, this paper puts forward using double constrained gravity model to forecasts transferred passenger volume between various traffic mode. In respect of traffic assignment volume of passenger flow: it creats road inpedence function that adapt to pedestrian traffic assignment in station and computing formula of maximum capacity of transferred passage, as well as the method and operational procedure of passenger traffic assignment volume forecasts using traffic assignment model based on TransCAD software. In respect of transferred passenger optimal organization: in order to reduce passenger dwell time on road section of transfered flow line, bring down transferred line congestion degree and to reasonably utilize traffic ability of facilities, it analyzes facilities's traffic ability and puts forwlard optimized method of transfered organization. In the end, it uses double constrained gravity model based on TransCAD software to forecast the volume of transferred passenger flow and the traffic assignment volume of passenger flow and the union example analyzed optimal origanization in Beijing South railway station. Specific to bottleneck road section of transferred passenger flow net, it puts forward several optimized countermeasures and organization suggestion, determine quantity of coming in and out railway station ticket examiner, ticket selling window and safety inspecting apparatus, all this aim at to supply foundation to practical Operations Management...