| The paper introduced the trend of development of the electricity market, focus on the analysis of the needs of short-term electricity retail competition mode reform. Analyzed the formation and operating mechnism of power price and analyzed existing forecasting methods. Under the new market environment, studied the influencing factors of pricing and their contribution rates with quantitative method. The results of the study are as follows:According to the electricity market at home and abroad, analyzed trade modes and their features and the present status of retail market. Analyzed the operation of PJM and summarized the power price forecasting methods. To the power prices and relevant variables in PJM electricity market, quantitative analyzed the price features and impact factors. Established date price forecasting model based on data mining technology and Support Vector Machine technology. Established date price forecasting model based on the establishment of a cointegration and Support Vector Machine technology. Then using the data of PJM and electricity market to verify the upper methods. |
