The Study On The Water Resource Carrying Capacity In The Karst Area Based On The Artificial Neural Network

The water resource is a kind of important natural resources, which plays a major part in keeping the ecosystem having functional integrity and cycling benignly. Additionally, it is a kind of basic, strategic economic resources which maintain human survival and social economic development. In the recent years, coming with the increase of population and the developing of social economy at a high speed, water problems present themselves day by day. As the important component of the sustainable development and the safe strategic researches on water resource, the study to water resource carrying capacity plays an essential role on keeping the development of the system named economy--Society–environment harmonious. Otherwise, it is the focal point and hot problem in the water resource research field presently, too.Although the regional water resource of the southwest karst area in our country is abundant in total amount, along with the strong development of karst geomophorlogy, the water resource becomes rather difficult of utilization and the matter is apt to inducing the engineering-oriented lack of water resource, due to the special transform among " Sanshui "——precipitation, surface water and groundwater in the karst area. Because the karst water environment is extremely fragile, which is easy to pollute and difficult to manage, comparing with the nonkarst district, the water resource in karst district has its own characteristic. With the social and economic development of area of karst, the water resources of some areas have presented the unsustainable state. As a result, going on researches to the water resource carrying capacity in karst district, has positive meanings in having concordant development based on the resources, environment and economy in karst district.But the concerned domestic and international studies mostly focus on that in nonkarst area at present, while few researches are made in karst area. On the basis of the studies from other experts, the water resource carrying capacity in karst district is done simply relying on the artificial neural network technology in my paper. In this text, the elementary concept and quantitative methods of the water resource carrying capacity are discussed. On that base, the concept of the water resource carrying capacity in karst district is gotten. Following the regionality, science, completeness and effective principle, the index system is constructed, and the primary influence factors are analyzed to the water resource carrying capacity of karst region. Finding the deficiency of the existing computing technology, taking Guizhou Province as an example, the estimating model for the water resource carrying capacity in karst district is set up. After checking the evaluating results computed in ANN, it is found that they are similar with that in the Principal Components Method. Then the predicting model is built, which of the error is found smaller than 10%. So it is fully proved that the ANN model is feasible in the studies of quantitating the water resource integrative carrying capacity in karst area.