A Study On Prediction Of Water-Gushing Into The Extra-Long Tunnel Of The Shi-Tai Passenger Line By Random Model

The water-gushing disaster is the most frequent geologic hazard in tunnel construction and management. The research of water-gushing forecast has become a hot problem currently. On the basis of on Nan Liang Tunnel and Tai Hang Mountain Tunnel, this paper analyses the condition of hydrogeology and engineering geology in detail on Nan Liang Tunnel and Tai Hang Mountain Tunnel for the purpose of forecasting water-gushing into tunnel, and divides the two tunnels into parts according to the two conditions. Influencing factors of water-gushing in karst tunnel which include geologic structure, lithology, wall rock sort, length and depth of tunnel, circumstance character of the earth's surface, and weather condition are deeply studied. Based on this theoretically analyzing, the theory and method of estimating of water-gushing are studied comprehensively. At the same time, the advantage, disadvantage and applying conditions of various forecasting methods are studied and compared.Aimed at hydrogeology condition and engineering geology condition of Nan Liang Tunnel and Tai Hang Mountain Tunnel, and considered reconnaissance condition, AHP is used to decide the ponderance of influencing factors. Method of fuzzy synthesis judgement is adopted to calculate and forecast the water-gushing grade and scope. Finally, the forecasting results of stochastic method and determinate method are contrasted.The studied result can offer reference for estimation of water-gushing amount of Nan Liang Tunnel and Tai Hang Mountain Tunnel and other tunnels.