Combination Forecasting Of Medium-Long Term Power Load Based On Entropy

This paper, firstly, summarize research background, importance, the basic theory and each forecasting method. After dissecting mathematical model of each forecasting method, introduce entropy forecasting theory. In combination forecasting, the weight's determination is most essential. In order to know as more as possible information of each forecasting method, this paper introduces four error indexes to measure accuracy of forecasting method. Making use of entropy theory to calculate the weight of error index, it makes up the insufficiency of basing on one error index which is usually used in past, and makes the forecasting result more reasonable in certain degree.According to actual situation of electrical network planning, I have developed simple and visual software. This paper introduces GIS in substations load forecast, and making use of MapX software to determine the location and load of a substation. It provides important data for electrical network planning and substation location searching, meanwhile, it makes electrical network planning has"intelligent"characteristic.