Air Traffic Management Risk Analysis System

Air traffic management system is a complex system. There are some uncertain factors in the safety assessment, such as randomness and fuzzy, lacking of history statistical data of accidents. It depends on experts'knowledge and experience to solve these uncertain factors and to evaluate the whole system according to safety standard of air traffic management system and its subsystems. Evidence theory is an important tool to investigate uncertainty problems so we apply this theory in the assessment on air traffic management to solve these problems.This thesis carries out in this sequence: Taking the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) as the guiding theory in the air traffic management safety assessment. According to the principles and steps of FSA, there are three parts in the paper. They are risk identifying, risk evaluating and putting forward suggestions on safety issues respectively. From the human, machine, environment, organization point of view we divide the accident attributing factors of air traffic management system into four parts: human factor, machine factor, environment factor and management factor to analyze it. The risk assessment index system of air traffic management safety system is established. In the risk evaluating part a safety analysis model based on evidence theory is also advanced, which provides the combined algorithm of evidence theory for the air traffic management formal safety assessment. At last an example is raised to validate the model and algorithm and a suggestion about air traffic management safety system risk assessment is also proposed based on risk identifying and quantitative results. Database about risk analysis is established, and air traffic management risk analysis software system is also developed. The development steps, pivotal technique and the main function of this software system are thoroughly introduced.Evidence theory is applied to air traffic management safety system risk assessment tentatively for solving the uncertainty problems in the assessment process. An analytical model and a specific algorithm based on evidence theory are also proposed. Air traffic management risk analysis software system is developed and the makes a foundation for its future using.