Analysis On The Characteristics Of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow

The construction of urban rail transit is comprehensive system engineering and is one of the most significant infrastructures in the city, which has great influence on the development of the city and the inhabitants' daily lives. The analysis of urban rail transit passenger flow will benefit its planning, operation and speed up the development of the land near by.The analysis process is focused on the operation phase and planning phase.First of all, the passenger survey is the basis of the analysis in the operation phase. The paper integrated the existing researches that are related to the operational passenger flow, based on which the time-space distribution, the waiting passenger distribution on the platform and the transfer passenger distribution of urban rail transit are provided.The passenger flow analysis in the planning phase is the core of the thesis which is based on the passenger flow forecast. The forecasting process is divided into several parts: the detailed narration on the mechanism for the urban rail transit passenger flow's generation, the division of the forecasting phases, the different forecasting mode, the comparison between aggregate and disaggregate model, the existing problems about forecast, the introduction of transfer flow forecast method and the application of 'four-step' method in the urban rail transit passenger forecast. According to the analysis of the forecast results, the evaluation indices, the passenger volume trend and its time-space distribution are provided, the passenger structure in the peak hour and the different operation characters between the buses and metros are also analyzed. The passenger flow sensitive analysis is based on the inner and outer factors in the public transit and is from four facets: the change of network, the fare, the services, and the socioeconomic and land-use causes. The thesis explains the reasons for the poor forecast results' reliability, and brings in the evaluation procedure that based on notion of degree of confidence and interval of confidence to modify the forecast results and improve the reliability. At last, the thesis ends with the passenger flow analytical example of Xi'an city.Based on the integration of existing researches, some new sights on the urban rail transit passenger flow are as follows: the passenger structure in the peak hour,...