Risk Analysis On Ship Grounding

Risk analysis is an integrated marginal discipline for assuring the safety and risk of engineering projects. It is also an area subject to increasing attention of both engineering and academic fields around the world, and has become an important research issue nowadays. The fundamentals of risk analysis are introduced and examples of practical applications are given in this paper. An application of the risk analysis method in the practical engineering project of channel is accomplished. The main achievements can be concluded as follows.1. The concepts, theory and methods of engineering risk analysis are introduced and generalized.2. The risk factors for the ship grounding are discerned. The main factors of influencing upright movements of ships are analyzed by considering channels'characteristics. The methods for determining such factors are proposed.3. The uncertainties of risk factors for the ship grounding are analyzed. The probability distributions of tidal water level, wave, sediment and speed of ship, choices of parameters and related methods for determining such factors are researched and analyzed in detail.4. The risk model for ship grounding is established. The method for calculating high tidal water level by using tidal gauge observation is given and computer program is designed as well.5. The risk of ship grounding, guaranteeing frequency for ship navigation , the expenses of the project and ship awaiting for high tide are studied by taking account of different designing bottom levels of the channel in order to determine an optimum bottom level for the channel design.