Research Algorithms For Estimating Parameters Of The Thermal Control Coat Decline Forecasting Models

In the spaceflight domain, performance decline of the thermal control coat is key factor which affects the space equipments'life, so research its'performance decline rules is very significance. Now, we have two forecast methods in common use, one is parameter model forecast method, another is non-parameter model forecast method.In this paper, the models of building and algorithms of estimating model'parameters are researched about the parameter model forecast method. The performance decline of the thermal coat materials are forecasted by the models and algorithms using the a few experiments data gained by the short simulated radiation experiment time. Several new performance decline models are presented. There are Similarity Exponential Model, Similarity Logarithm Model, Exp-Exp Combinational Model, Log-Exp Combinational Model and Similarity Bed Damnification-Exp Combinational Model. At the same time, four algorithms about estimating parameters of coat material performance decline model are presented. They are LM algorithm,Modified Powell Algorithm,Adaptive Simulation Annealing Backfire Algorithm,and Adaptive Hybrid Genetic Algorithm.In this paper, some experiments about the algorithms and decline models above using test performance data of Teflon Type coat materials gained by the simulated radiation experiments are presented, And some comparative experiments are presented. Compare the experimental results with the prediction result of international Simple Exp Model and the actual experiment data among nine years in America. At the same time, do universal compares of experimental results with test data, which are obtained with various models and algorithms and different radiation time.In the end of this paper, the design process of coat material life forecast system is presented. The while frame,data flow chart and the method of data storage about the whole system are described particularly. This software is used to reality and has good effects.