Application Of Analytic Hierarchy Process To Power Load Forecasting

Power load forecasting is one of the important parts in power system planning. An accurate power load forecasting is beneficial socially as well as economically in power system. This thesis is aim to express the result decision on the research of load forecasting. After study thoroughly on the decision theory of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the improved fuzzy AHP is employed to the decision of mid-long term load forecasting result. First, this thesis introduces the fundamental background and characteristic of AHP. Next, summaries of the application in generation side technology, transmission and distribution network planning, power load forecasting, etc are described in details. Qualitative information can be analyzed quantitatively thru the scaling method and judgment matrix of AHP. Prior to this, the thesis emphasizing that AHP have an excellent application foreground in terms of power system planning, operation and the evaluation of power companies in power system market. Due to the shortcoming of traditional AHP, the thesis shows the efforts of research and study of the improved FAHP, including its characteristic, fundamental background, fuzzy consistent judgment matrix and weight solution method. Various qualitative and quantitative factors which can affect the development of power load are analyzed according to the interrelated prescript and some collected information. Focusing onto a certain point, a recursion order hierarchy structure model of load forecasting has been built in this thesis. The collected results and fact shows that forecasting precision can be improved by employing FAHP on decision of mid-long term load forecasting result. The research and study on load curve forecasting methods did not carried further, however, those are still very important in power system planning and power market. It gives a thorough study on three kinds of load curve forecasting models in this thesis. It also points out the characteristic and application range of those models, and hence the basis of correlative research work in the future is established. Finally, based on the models mentioned above, this thesis also introduces structural design frame, applications and the major characteristic of the developed load forecasting system through the methods of OOD and client/server pattern. The function of forecasting, function in data management and some other supplementary functions are also introduced in this thesis.