Load Forecast And Programming Of "the Eleventh Five-years" Of Shenzhen Power System

Load forecast is a traditional research issue in the field of electric power system. Based on the analysis and study on the historical data, it is start with the cognition of electric power system, economy, society and meteorological phenomena to explore the internal relations among objects and their developing and changing principles, and then predict the develop tendency of load. Load forecast is a foundational work of programming, planning, consumption and dispatch in electric power system. Its significance has been known for a long time.As the footstone of power line programming, load forecast is indispensable work in power line research. This paper presents the objects and plan of Shenzhen power line construction through studying the load of Shenzhen power line and analyzing the result of load forecast, which makes it highly practical applicable.This paper systematically formulates the work of load forecast in power system, traces the load forecast research situation both inland and oversea, have good mastery of most newly emerged information and knowledge in this field. We process the load forecast for Shenzhen power line through multi-approach, calculate the annual load data of Shenzhen power line in "The Eleventh Five Plan " according to the prediction, which provide a precise basis for Shenzhen power line programming and construction in this period. Meantime, this article processes the analysis and computation to the supply-demand balance of Shenzhen power line in "The Eleventh Five Plan" on the basis of load forecast, and presents Shenzhen power line electrical supply programming and power transmission/transformation engineering construction targets during this period, provides the decision making reference for Shenzhen power line construction.Moreover, combined with practical work, this paper analyzed the major problem in Shenzhen power line, put forward highly feasible and operable relevant suggestions for Shenzhen power line programming/construction based on results of load forecast and power balance analysis.