Intelligence Nonparametric Methods For Water Security Systems

Water as a special resource, which sustains all life, is the substance of sustainable development society. With the rapid development of economy and growth of population recently, the problem of water resources shortage, water environment deterioration, drought and flood becomes more and more acute.Firstly introduce the review of study on water security problem and the research on application of nonparametric method to water security system engineering. Then present intelligence nonparametric modeling method ,such as: changeable structure genetic algorithm(CSGA) method, genetic programming method(GP), artificial neural networks(ANN) model, interpolation model based on project pursuit(PPIM), similitude interpolation model based on kernel function(KFIM) and so on, due to the difficulty of describing the complicated relation between input and output data of water security system by traditional parametric model, in which model structure and parameter is difficult of being determined. Finally give the application of those model mentioned above to water security system engineering: (1)in prediction, using rainfall, which is often used as the input of water resources system, as the exploration object, establish the auto regressive rainfall time serial prediction model and the relation between rainfall and space model;(2)in evaluation: using water quality and flood disaster loss as evaluation object, establish the CSGA, GP, ANN, PPIM, KFEM evaluation model;(3)in simulation: establish semiparametric runoff time serial simulation model, in which the determinacy component is described by parametric method and the indeterminacy component is described by nonparametric method, in order to take advantage of various information from single model, a nonlinear combination prediction and evaluation model based on BP neural networks is applied to forecast rainfall and evaluate flood disaster loss. The application results indicate that: the possibility and reliability of the models applied to water security system engineering are obtained. It is concluded that the models stated above can be applied to water security system engineering generally.