Study And Application Of Safety Monitoring Models On Concrete Arch Dam Deformation Analysis

Arch dam deformation is affected by many inside and outside factors, such as water pressure, temperature, autogenous volume deformation, dry and wet deformation, plastic deformation, creep, creep behavior on bank grounds etc. The monitoring models on concrete arch dam deformation analysis in the past often use index form model, logarithm form model, hyperbola form model and linearity form model or random combination of these models to simulate the time-effect factors. The project appliance experience indicates that the simulate result can satisfy the application demand at a certain extent. However, these models are all the monotony functions of time, they couldn't explain the cause of time-effect deformation produced, and they are lacking of theoretical basis. But using grey system theory methods to simulate the time-effect factors can well resolve this problem. So, the research of this project is based on this.After detailedly analyzing the influent factors of arch dam deformation, according to the grey system theory, statistic regress theory and 3D finite element theory, this paper first use grey relationship methods to pretreat the all possible water pressure and temperature factors, then using grey polynomial model to simulate the variation process of time-effect factor. Finally, based on the project actual and monitoring data, the author successfully founded two mathematical models----grey regress model and FSG model which are for arch dam deformation analysis by the FEM calculate software ANSYS and the correlated program programmed by the language of MATLAB.In the paper, the author calculated the horizontal deformation of plumb-line along the river of LiJiaXia arch dam, successfully separated all factors which influence the arch dam deformation, and quantitatively analysed the contributes of each factor to dam deformation, and used FSG model to predict the horizontal deformation at some monitor points. The results are satisfactory and the predicted precision is high.The results show that grey relationship analysis is an effective pretreatment to dam prototype observation data; grey polynomial model can well simulate the variation process of time-effect factor and smartly avoid this step to analyse the cause of time-effect deformation. So, grey regress model and FSG model will find its way in analyzing prototype observation data of dam, worthy of propagation in hydraulic engineering practice.